Subject: Myanmar Coup Updates for May 5

Arbitrary detentions appear to be coordinated, directed from above; NUG establishes People's Defence Force; NUG Human Rights Minister plans to file complaints at ICC amid continued debates over Rohingya inclusion; ANP threatens to end cooperation with junta; more ethnic media licenses revoked; banks reopening but facing cash crunch; the need to look beyond ASEAN; Chinese energy companies consider pull out as guards for China pipelines killed; NGOs call for global arms embargo on Myanmar; Bangladesh blames massive Rohingya camp fire on gas cylinder
  • Systemic and targeted arbitrary detentions: With nearly 3,700 detained, including some 1,000 children and young people, The Associated Press has a long piece on the civilians, mostly men and boys, being arbitrarily detained, held incommunicado, tortured, and sometimes, killed in detention, with rights groups alleging the actions demonstrate both coordination and that security officials are following orders from above.
  • NUG establishes People's Defence Force: The National Unity Government (NUG) on Wednesday formally established the "People's Defence Force," the precursor to a planned federal army (unofficial translation of the announcement). To complement the national People's Defence Force and those already created at the state and region level (as in Chin and Ayeyarwaddy), on Wednesday the Sagaing People's Defence Force was established; Sagaing has seen some of the fiercest civilian resistance to the coup, with dozens of soldiers and police reportedly killed.
  • The debate over Rohingya inclusion: Rep. Ted Lieu's remarks at Tuesday's House Foreign Affairs Committee meeting have again brought issues of Rohingya inclusion, cross-ethnic solidarity, and justice and accountability to the fore. The old guard call for time to deal with this "complex" and "sensitive" issue (among other excuses), while Rohingya and progressive activists - who are clearly seeking more than mere tokenistic representation - ask, "if not now, when?" Rohingya leaders - in Myanmar, Bangladesh, and the diaspora - have clearly articulated that they want to be treated as equals in Myanmar; a failure by the NUG to even signal that this is their intention bodes ill not only for the Rohingya but for ethnic minorities that already have reason to be skeptical of the NUG. As activist Me Me Khant puts it, if the NUG "can announce a People’s Defence Force, they can definitely abolish the 1982 Citizenship Law and guarantee citizenship rights to the Rohingya."
    • ANP slips away from the junta: The Arakan National Party (ANP), the largest political party in Rakhine State, was courted assiduously by the Tatmadaw in the wake of the coup, ultimately convincing the ANP to take a role on the State Administration Council (SAC). Now, the chairman of the ANP said the party is considering ending its cooperation with the SAC because most of its demands - including for the release of Rakhine political prisoners and a greater say in governance - have gone unheeded. While it is too soon to say how this will impact dynamics in Rakhine, it could foreshadow a move by the Arakan Army to shift away from the SAC as well as portend greater volatility in Rakhine, where no protest-related deaths have been recorded since the coup and anti-coup activity and participation in the Civil Disobedience Movement have been muted.
  • Ethnic media licenses revoked: In addition to revoking the license of Kachin-based The 74 Media on Monday, the Tatmadaw has also now revoked the media licenses of the Kachin-based Myitkyina Journal and the Shan-based Tachileik News Agency, bringing the total number of media outlets that have had their licenses revoked to eight. Like The 74, Tachileik News said it will continue publishing.
  • Hundreds newly displaced in Shan State: Hundreds are newly displaced in Shan State's Kutkai Township as a result of fighting between the Tatmadaw and Northern Alliance forces.
    • KNU claims large Tatmadaw casualties: Though these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt - and the Karen National Union (KNU) has not released detailed casualty figures of its own - the KNU Brigade 5 spokesperson claims nearly 200 Tatmadaw killed and 400 battles since late March.
  • Reopening banks create a cash crunch: Under pressure from their employers and the junta, bank staff are returning to work with the largest bank in the country, KBZ, opening half of its branches nationwide. The reopening, however, is revealing a severe cash crunch; with few account holders making deposits and people lining up for hours to access cash, banks are setting up even more restrictive limits than those set by the Central Bank setting Myanmar up for a liquidity crisis solely attributable to the political instability caused by the coup. 
  • International response
    • A need to look beyond ASEAN: Though analysts continue to argue that "The Asean option is the only diplomatic opening gambit" and there are few other obvious diplomatic options - the UN Special Envoy has played herself out of a role with her outspoken stance and the UN Secretary-General is unlikely to wade in to such a controversial issue on which the Security Council is divided just a few months ahead of his reelection to the role - ASEAN does not seem up to managing either the substance or process of the task, having blamed both sides for violence, failing to agree on the release of those arbitrarily detained, not including a timeline or enforcement measures in the five point consensus, and failing to immediately appoint a special envoy. And, of course, the Tatmadaw has ignored the five point consensus. Despite these concerns, however, ASEAN continues to enjoy significant external support, including from the UN and Western and Asian countries that recognize ASEAN's role. While expressing concerns about a possible humanitarian crisis and escalating civil war, for example, China's Ambassador to the UN nonetheless called for greater diplomacy with ASEAN at the forefront arguing that "It's mainly an issue relating to the difference on the election...The political parties should be able to find a solution." If these are the terms on which ASEAN's efforts will be waged, the bloc is likely to serve only as a means to buy time for the junta, as the NUG's foreign minister recently suggested. Alternatives must be explored.
    • G7 communique on Myanmar: The G7 communique includes several paragraphs on Myanmar (see below for full Myanmar-related text), which go somewhat beyond the groups February 23 statement in calling for preventing weapons transfers to Myanmar, due-diligence in conducting business relationships with military-affiliated conglomerates, and ensuring that humanitarian assistance does not benefit the military. It is significant that Japan signed on to such a strong statement, but the G7 does not commit itself to any further action, deferring to ASEAN and the UN Special Envoy, which, as noted above, is problematic.
    • Chinese energy companies consider pull out as pipeline guards killed: With instability since the coup increasing the risk of major infrastructure investments, Chinese energy companies "have had their projects put on hold, and some are considering exiting the market." After threatening to attack China's oil and gas pipelines, unidentified attackers have killed three guarding the pipelines, which could prompt China to do something (or at least make them even warier of engaging the anti-Chinese opposition to the coup). 
    • 200 NGOs call for UNSC arms embargo: More than 200 NGOs called for the UN Security Council to impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Myanmar and for the UK, as the penholder on Myanmar, to immediately begin negotiations on a resolution that includes an embargo.
  • Continued calls for Bangladesh to remove barbed wire fencing: With a new brief, Fortify Rights joins the chorus of stakeholders, including a prominent social media campaign, calling for Bangladesh to remove the barbed wire fencing around the Rohingya refugee camps, noting that the fencing is not only in breach of fundamental rights but can be directly linked to death and injuries from a major fire in the camps on March 22. Bangladesh's investigation into that fire concluded it was caused by a gas cylinder fire and offers 13 recommendations, including better spacing between shelters and emergency exits for evacuation from the camps, but does not call for the removal of the fencing.
    • Bangladesh extends COVID lockdown through Eid: Bangladesh has extended its nationwide lockdown through May 16, which covers the Eid holiday (May 13-16); the lockdown began on April 14 and has severely curtailed services to the Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar (including excluding protection activities from "essential services").
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G7 Communique, Myanmar-relevant text

Myanmar
21. We condemn in the strongest terms the military coup in Myanmar. We call upon the military immediately to end the state of emergency, restore power to the democratically-elected government and to release all those arbitrarily detained, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, human rights defenders, journalists, civil society members, academics, teachers, medical staff, religious leaders and foreign nationals. We condemn the violence committed by Myanmar’s security forces and their violent repression of peaceful protesters. The military and the police must immediately cease the violence, exercise utmost restraint and respect international law, including international human rights law. Those responsible for violations and abuses of human rights and international human rights law must be held accountable.

22. We call on the military to restore Myanmar to the path to democracy. We reiterate our solidarity with all those advocating for and working towards an inclusive democracy. This includes efforts by the Committee Representing the Union Parliament (CRPH) and other pro-democracy leaders, along with the National Unity Government (NUG), the civil disobedience movement and others. We welcome the 24 April ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting in Jakarta and the leadership of the ASEAN Chair to bring parties together towards resolution of the crisis in Myanmar. We welcome the consensus on the need for immediate cessation of violence; commencement of constructive dialogue among all parties concerned; the appointment of a special envoy of the ASEAN Chair to facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, who must be able to engage all parties in Myanmar; ASEAN humanitarian assistance; and a visit to Myanmar by the Special Envoy. We are committed to constructively supporting ASEAN’s efforts including the work of the ASEAN Special Envoy, and we urge implementation as soon as possible. We reiterate our support for the ongoing dialogue efforts undertaken by the Myanmar Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General and her efforts with all parties.

23. We are deeply concerned at the worsening human rights and humanitarian situation in Myanmar since the coup. We stress the importance of all people in need, including Rohingya and other minority groups, having rapid, safe and unhindered access to humanitarian assistance and reiterate our demand that the military grant immediate and unrestricted access to the UN to meet the critical needs of vulnerable populations. We call on the military junta to respect the safety of medical facilities and staff. We stress the need for the voluntary, safe, dignified, and sustainable return of refugees from Bangladesh and elsewhere in the region, and those internally displaced within Myanmar, when conditions allow. We continue to advocate for the rights and protection of persons belonging to minority groups.

24. We reiterate our readiness to take further steps if the military does not reverse its course. In that regard we commit to continuing to prevent the supply, sale or transfer of all weapons, munitions, and other military-related equipment to Myanmar and the supply of technical cooperation. We commit to exercise due diligence in conducting business relationships with military-affiliated conglomerates, and call on others to do likewise. We will also cooperate to prevent our development aid from supporting the military-led regime and to ensure it benefits the people of Myanmar, especially those who are most in need in accordance with humanitarian principles. We call on all states to adopt similar measures.
Steve Ross

Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement

The Richardson Center